Irish consumer sentiment holds steady in October as confidence crumbles elsewhere

Date: 4 November, 2026

Fractional gain occurs against backdrop of higher inflation, rising energy costs and Public Sector industrial action
Irish survey results contrast with sharp declines in French and UK confidence measures
Did Budget ’27 measures make any difference here?  
Special Questions look at consumer expectations for living costs and incomes in 2027 as well as their current financial capacity
- 77% of consumers expect higher household costs in 2027
- 38% expect a higher household income
- Energy and food seen as strongest areas of increased costs
- Weighted average of consumer expectations is for living costs to rise 3.5% in 2027
- 38% of consumers indicate they are ‘comfortable’ financially at present
- 19% say they are cutting back, a further 10% say they are struggling to pay bills and 5% say they’re now falling behind on essential expenses

Speaking on the release of the October sentiment survey, David Malone, CEO of the Irish League of Credit Unions noted ‘‘The October survey suggests that sentiment overall remains subdued and consumers continue to be nervous. More importantly, the survey highlights the diverse financial circumstances facing households across the country. Whatever their circumstances, whether they are dealing with challenges or exploring new possibilities, consumers know they can rely on the guidance and support of their local credit union.’

Summary

Irish consumer sentiment held broadly steady, albeit at a fairly subdued level in October. In circumstances where energy prices increased materially further, a public sector strike underscored cost-of-living pressures here and confidence measures weakened in a range of other countries, this might be seen as a somewhat surprising and reasonably positive outcome.

The sentiment survey suggests consumers were a little gloomier about Irish economic prospects and also slightly more negative about the outlook for their own household finances in October. However, the other three elements of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) were all marginally better than in September.

The survey results suggest that the package of measures presented in Budget ’27 in early October did not markedly alter Irish consumer thinking on the economy or their own personal finances. That said, the marginal improvement in sentiment may suggest that, at very least, the Budget did not disappoint relative to Irish consumers’ expectations.

The broader tone of the latest sentiment survey, coupled with responses to the supplementary questions asked in October, would argue that Irish consumers  continue to deal with ongoing cost-of-living pressures with widely varying degrees of financial capacity.   

Irish consumers a little less glum, consumers elsewhere gloomier in October  

The slight increase in Irish consumer sentiment in October contrasted with further weakness in confidence measures in many other countries.

In the US, consumer sentiment was fractionally down from the September reading but effectively signalled no change in thinking. However, the October survey marks the second lowest reading in over five decades. The authors of the US report cited increased concerns around purchasing power and a related pick-up in inflation expectations.

The preliminary reading of Euro area consumer confidence fell to its  weakest level since May. While much of this weakness may be attributed to a sharp drop in French consumer confidence-where national data show a fall to its lowest level since June 2013, separate national measures available show declines in several other countries.

October also saw what the report authors described as ‘an extraordinary collapse’ in UK consumer confidence. The largest monthly fall since the pandemic in 2020 fully reversed what had been a marked upswing in the mood of UK consumers since the early summer.

We previously emphasised the impact on UK sentiment of what appeared to be a honeymoon period for the new Prime Minister but, as inflation continues to pick up and expectations of a dramatic change in the fiscal stance slipped, it appears the October confidence data captured a major re-think on the part of UK consumers.      

We have frequently highlighted the significant negative relation between energy costs and consumer sentiment. We should note that while current prices remain elevated in most countries, October saw significant reductions in fuel taxes in a range of European countries, most notably in Germany, Greece and Spain, that led to lower retail motor fuel prices. Both the US and UK saw steady to slightly lower motor fuel costs between late September and mid-October.

In contrast, Irish motor fuel costs rose materially between the September and October survey periods, suggesting some other domestic development provided support to Irish consumer sentiment in October.       

Irish consumers a little more worried about the economy

The most negative aspect of the October sentiment survey was in relation to prospects for the Irish economy. It should be noted that this has consistently been the most negative element of the survey for some considerable time and the further decline in October was fairly limited.

In the main, global macroeconomic developments during the survey period were less negative than might have been envisaged, with a slight upgrade of forecasts for activity in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook. However, there was some turbulence in stock markets on concerns around AI-related share valuations. More generally, concerns around AI’s impact on activity and employment continued to attract significant media attention.

While the latest IMF forecasts for Ireland predicted weaker GDP growth in 2026 and stronger growth in 2027 than previously indicated, this attracted little attention.

Most relevant media focus domestically was on the 2027 Budget package and its implications for the economy and the public finances. The widely reported Irish Fiscal Advisory Council’s headline assessment of the Budget package as  ‘fast and loose’ commanded much attention. This may have coloured consumer thinking on the economic outlook in the October survey. 

French lessons?

It might have been expected case that Public Sector industrial action, culminating in a one-day strike on October 14th, the first since 2009, would have influenced Irish consumers’ assessment of the domestic economic climate. However, these developments don’t appear to have prompted a sharp or wide-ranging change in the thinking of Irish consumers in October. 

The seemingly limited impact of public sector industrial action on Irish consuer sentiment stands in marked contrast with the fallout for consumer confidence from a wave of recent protests in France. The recent French protests were altogether more virulent and violent and appear to have led to a severe downgrade of consumer confidence in France in October.

Beyond the scale of the protests, it may be that  the impact on consumer confidence is amplified by a notably poorer economic outlook and altogether deeper problems in the French public finances. In addition, ingrained divisions make arriving at a coherent policy response notably more difficult.     

Irish consumers concerned about jobs but no more so in October  

In contrast to thinking on general economic prospects, Irish consumers were marginally less negative in regard to the outlook for jobs in October.  A stable unemployment rate in September and a still positive trend in administrative data on employee numbers through summer months married to an uptick in income tax receipts in September suggest that any cooling in the jobs market remains fairly controlled.

The survey period saw broadly similar numbers of new job announcements and layoffs, both centred on tech firms. The Public Sector pay dispute doesn’t appear to have impacted thinking on the outlook for the labour market, and with sentiment already notably negative in regard to jobs, the October survey signalled a slight easing in such concerns.     

Mixed views on household finances signal no major change in consumer thinking

The balance of responses to Sentiment Survey questions on household finances remains firmly negative but two of the three elements focussed on consumers ability and willingness to spend improved slightly in October relative to September.

Against a backdrop of higher inflation (the latest official release showed Irish inflation at 4.1% in September against 3.7% in August),  a sharp jump in retail motor fuel prices (in contrast to developments in many other countries) and the threat of further upward pressure in the future from rising global oil prices, this might be seen as a slightly surprising result.

Tentative signs of a shift towards a firming in food prices and a small increase in PRSI rates in October, coupled with the concerns around living costs highlighted in the Public Sector industrial action, would further argue for a weaker sentiment reading in relation to household finances.

These considerations might suggest that the measures announced in Budget ’27 may have matched or possibly exceeded consumer expectations in terms of the supports offered to household spending power. However, it is important to add that responses to special questions in the September 2026 sentiment survey suggested most consumers did not expect any marked income uplift from Budget ’27.    

The October sentiment survey did show a fractional worsening of consumer thinking on their spending power over the next twelve months but the monthly change was insignificant and doesn’t point to any deterioration in consumer thinking in this regard.

On a more positive note, consumer thinking on the buying climate rose, albeit marginally, for the third month in a row, hinting at some resilience in aggregate consumer spending.

At the margin, an increased spending tendency around Halloween, a growing media focus on Christmas spending plans and a range of special offers on homeware goods may have supported sentiment in this regard. Our sense is that the broad indexation of income taxes and social welfare rates in Budget ’27 may have also encouraged a slight easing in concerns around future spending power.      

Section I; Slight improvement in October sentiment survey suggests Irish consumers (just about) coping with further price pressures and economic worries

As the table below indicates, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) shows a fractional improvement to 61.6 in October from 61.1 in September. 

The Irish consumer sentiment reading for October at 61.6 is marginally above the 59.6 average of the previous seven months (since the start of the war on Iran) but materially below the 83.0 thirty-year average of sentiment survey.

The October survey result continues a pattern of small monthly swings within a fairly limited range since the war on Iran started. We think this suggests Irish consumers see little reason to shift from a mindset  that is  nervous about a world they see as increasingly uncertain and largely negative about those economic and financial elements, such as living costs, which they regard as (relatively) certain.

Irish consumers a little less glum, consumers elsewhere gloomier in October  

The slight increase in Irish consumer sentiment in October contrasted with further weakness in confidence measures in many other countries.

Irish consumers a little more worried about the economy

While the latest IMF forecasts for Ireland predicted weaker GDP growth in 2026 and stronger growth in 2027 than previously indicated, this attracted little attention.

French lessons?

Irish consumers concerned about jobs but no more so in October  

Mixed views on household finances signal no major change in consumer thinking

On a more positive note, consumer thinking on the buying climate rose, albeit marginally, for the third month in a row, hinting at some resilience in aggregate consumer spending.

Section II; Irish consumers expect more cost increases in 2027. Have they the financial capacity to handle them?

As usual, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) included a couple of supplementary questions on topics of current interest.

The October survey asked a representative sample of Irish consumers how they felt their incomes and various elements of their household living costs might evolve in 2027.

The survey also asked them how they would describe their own current household financial circumstances. The intention was to assess how prepared consumers might be for further increases in household costs and how much financial capacity they may have to handle them.

We began this part of the survey by asking consumers how much and in which direction they expected their household income and various elements of their living costs to change in 2027. In an effort to standardise responses, we defined ‘large’ as a change of more than 5% in either direction, ‘moderate’ as a change of between 2% and 5%, and ‘slight’ as being between 1% and 2%. 

First of all, we asked about the overall change expected in household living costs and incomes. The responses are shown in diagram 1.  

Three out of four Irish consumers (77%) expect their household living costs will increase in 2027, with one in four consumers (27%) expecting their costs to rise by a large amount (i.e. more than 5%).

In contrast, just over one in three consumers (38%) expect their household income to increase in 2027 and only one in seventeen consumers (6%) anticipates a large increase in their household income.   

In the same vein, just 13% of consumers expect their household living costs to fall in 2027 but nearly twice as many consumers (24%) think their household income will be lower next year.

A clear message from consumers 

The broad message of these responses is that there is a widespread expectation among Irish consumers that, both in terms of scale and spread, increases in household living costs will clearly outpace any gains in income in 2027. 

While all demographics saw a range of response options, significant increases in household living costs next year were more widely expected by older consumers and also notably less likely to envisage lower costs than younger consumers.

Those having difficulty making ends meet were far more likely to expect a large increase in household living costs than those not having problems currently in this regard. In the same vein, consumers outside Dublin were more likely to expect marked increases in living costs next year and also far less likely to expect a reduction in living costs than their counterparts in the capital.

We might speculate that these variations could reflect the greater importance of energy costs for households struggling financially at present and for rural households more generally.

Irish consumers and economists agree on Inflation outlook?

It may be worth noting that Irish consumer thinking on living costs is not markedly different to the expectations of economists. Although there was a wide spread of responses in relation to the likely scale of increase in household living costs in 2027, our calculation of the weighted average of consumer expectations in this survey segment is 3.5%, effectively the same as the ESRI’s latest forecast (29/09/26) of a 3.3% rise in consumer prices for next year and broadly in line with official forecasts that focus on a slightly different inflation measure.

Cost concerns focussed most sharply on energy and food

The October 2026 Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) also asked consumers to indicate how they felt various elements of their household living costs were likely to evolve in 2027. Responses to this question are shown in diagram 2.

As diagram 2 illustrates, most Irish consumers expect further increases rather than declines in most areas of their household living costs in 2026. The most widely expected sharp increases are in areas such as energy and grocery bills where four in five consumers envisage higher outlays in the coming year, and around one in three is braced for large increases in these areas.

In all categories of household spending examined, responses envisaging higher expected costs outweigh those expecting cost reductions.

How do Irish consumers assess their current financial circumstances?

As diagram 1 above illustrates, the number of Irish consumers who expect their cost of living  to increase in 2027 is double the number who expect their household income to increase (77% of consumers against 38%). How problematic such an outcome might prove in the year ahead depends on how much of a financial cushion consumers now have.

To explore this further, the October sentiment survey also asked consumers how they assessed their current financial circumstances. We previously characterised the financial circumstances of Irish consumers as falling into three groupings, the comfortable, the coping and those clinging on.

In the October sentiment survey, we adopted a slightly more disaggregated breakdown of households’ current financial circumstances in an effort to get a clearer sense of the degree of variation in household circumstances.

We defined ‘very comfortable’ as ‘having a significant amount of money left over most months’.  ‘Comfortable’ was defined as ‘usually having some money left over after covering regular expenses’. ‘Managing well’ was defined as ‘ being able to cover regular expenses and afford some non-essential spending’. ‘Managing carefully’ was defined as ‘being able to cover regular expenses but needing to keep a close eye on spending’. ‘Managing with difficulty’ was defined as ‘needing to make cutbacks to cover regular expenses’. ‘ Struggling’ was defined as ‘finding it difficult to cover regular expenses and bills’.  ‘Falling behind' was defined as ‘being unable to keep up with some bills or essential expenses’.

Responses to this question are shown in Diagram 3.

We think the three categories of ‘very comfortable’, comfortable’ and ‘managing well’ likely captures those consumers whose current household financial circumstances are broadly consistent with the gains that might be expected from a strong Irish economy.  

Together the three elements of this grouping largely corresponds to our earlier categorisation of the ‘comfortable’. The survey implies this covers about 39% of Irish consumers.

Males are far more likely to self-report as being one of these three ‘comfortable’ groupings than females. Dublin consumers are somewhat more likely to be comfortable than their counterparts outside the capital.

The age grouping most likely to say they are comfortable are those aged under 25, followed by those aged 25 to 35 and those aged over 65. Those aged between 45 and 65 are markedly less likely to suggest they are financially comfortable. Not surprisingly, there is a strong positive correlation between household income and financial comfort.

A middle grouping comprising 28% of consumers self-report as ‘managing carefully’.  These might be considered to be coping with current economic and financial conditions. While there were no major demographic differences within this group, this response was more frequently given by females than males. There was also a tendency for this response to become more frequent as household income increased but it became less common at higher incomes, presumably as financial constraints eased.

The final three categories of consumers, entailing those managing with difficulty, those struggling, and those falling behind, might be seen as a grouping whose current financial circumstances fall short of the gains that a strong economy might be expected to deliver. Together, they account for some 34% of Irish consumers.

This grouping is somewhat broader than might be described as ‘clinging on' but it emphasises that significant numbers of Irish consumers are under notable financial strain at present.

The most notable demographic features of this grouping are a greater incidence of females than males, of middle-aged consumers and, not surprisingly, of those on lower household incomes.

Some Take-aways

The special questions in the October sentiment survey suggest Irish consumers are braced for another difficult year of rising living costs in 2027.

Our estimate that the weighted average expectation of Irish consumers is for an increase in living costs of just under 3.5% in 2027 is broadly in line with expert forecasts.

Accordingly, it does not seem that consumers are being unduly pessimistic about the scale of the cost pressures they face. Similarly, the particular focus on food and energy prices reflects elevated risks in these areas. 

The October sentiment survey once again underlines the importance of marked variations in Irish consumers capacity to handle further upward pressure on living costs. This also serves to explain the coincidence of crowded airports and continuing increases in energy arrears.

While the survey findings confirm unsurprising links between financial capacity and household income, they also suggests important and often more complex factors such as life-cycle stage as well as gender and location as important influences on Irish consumers ability to handle financial pressures. In turn, these elements make ‘targetted’ policy responses altogether more difficult to calibrate efficiently or equitably.  

It might be added that the marginal improvement in Irish consumer sentiment in October, against a backdrop of threatening developments and weaker confidence outturns elsewhere, suggests that policy measures that provide a measure of offset to ongoing pressure on living costs have the merit of supporting sentiment and spending power.        

The Credit Union Irish Consumer Sentiment Survey is a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults. Since May 2019, Core Research have undertaken the survey administration and data collection for the Survey. This tranche of the survey was live between the 2nd and 17th October 2026.